AI and Other Game Changers

Elsewhere noted in my ‘confessional posts’ that I have strongly believed in holistic approaches and social inclusivity in sustainably solving global and socio-environmental problems for quite some time — despite those admittedly bad f**k-ups (in 1982; 1988; 1996). (I do have further proof that I haven’t been a self-centred, seemingly self-serving sociopathic narcissist all my life.)

Quite a few folks I encountered in both the social and green movements seemed to be antagonistic towards other areas of human endeavour, like technology, Big Business, the megabuck world of professional sports, Olympics, space exploration, etc — or perhaps, like me, felt there could be a rebalancing of the socioeconomic-environmental et al equations, through the participation, engagement and support of all sides — or, particularly, it seems, the general masses and ‘the powers that be’.

Yet, it would seem greater awareness of a Master Plan, and wiser, far-seeing involvement and co-operation from those who wielded the most power has been key; possibly, but not limited to:

): To help create a win-win-win situation for all (or maybe some, in the end). The fact is, you can’t (or shouldn’t) keep people from excelling in whatever areas they may gravitate towards (not that murder, hate, etc, should be encouraged) — and truly we are seeing divergent worlds come together and support mutual areas of concern and human development. Awesome!

  • wealthy elite;
  • corporate leaders / managers;
  • politicians;
  • celebrities;
  • cultural icons;
  • digital media creators, personalities, and influencers of all kinds;
  • computer programmers, tech experts of all types;
  • scientists, particularly ‘data scientists’;
  • religious groups;
  • healthcare professionals;
  • social entrepreneurs;
  • successful and strategic activists;
  • waymakers and pathbreakers in all spheres, etc
  • And a key activator has been Big Brother, behind the scenes (a co-operation among countries).

(Stay tuned for “surveillance capitalists”.)

Perhaps everything in the multiverse comes down to numbers and algorithms; but also systems, ecosystems, and galaxies working in co-ordination with one another: An ‘all that is’ INTERCONNECTEDNESS? Though that, too, has its hierarchies.

It’s been happening, and is part of the New Dawn of Civilization (?). For example: Every tree on earth will eventually be microchipped for data, and monitored from satellites above; and every sport and athlete a bunch of computations, etc. And yet, gambling, too, feeds the algorithmic data collection; plus, strategic stoking of primal instincts among citizenry (eg, survival, conquest, game-play, sex, etc), and evolution-enhancing partnerships. Wowza.

(I’ve been in such a restrictive ‘digital information bubble’ for so long, I actually asked my cousin last year what ‘STEM’ was (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math). References had vaguely crossed my path a few times (in print, mostly), but I didn’t pay attention. Lol)

 And you just have to watch an episode of Bull to get an idea of both trial analysis science and trial consultants – kind of ‘gaming the system’. (NOTES: Interestingly, Bull is going off-air now, Spring 2022; I believe the remote earphone technology they use in the show was already possible 20 years ago; and btw, you will increasingly find certain internet articles don’t display a publication date, along with other ways information is being jumbled):

“No Bull: True Tales of Real Life Trial Consultants” (full article, below)

By Ian McWilliams

(https://newenglandtrialservices.com/no-bull-true-tales-real-life-trial-consultants/)

AI In Hockey / Sports

Can’t find the original news segment on hockey and AI. I think the date changed on one of the articles, below. Anyway, they are in search rank order. 

Apr 6, 2018

AI-Powered Hockey Analytics: A Game Changer

Analytics are all the rage in professional sports. The concept can be traced back to American statistician Bill James, who introduced his “Sabermetrics” method for in-game baseball analysis in the 1970s. When the NBA’s Golden State Warriors decided to favour three-pointers over two-point shots in 2016, the winning strategy sent a shockwave through professional basketball. This was a “data-driven decision” based on higher score probability, explains Alex Martynov.

Martynov is the 24-year old founder of ICEBERG, a Canadian startup using AI algorithms in sports analytics with a focus on ice hockey. Three years ago, Alex shared the idea of an AI sports analytics company with his investor father, who helped him kickstart the idea with $25,000. Not much, but it was enough for Alex to gather programmer friends in Toronto and Moscow and put together a working prototype.

ICEBERG installs a set of three FLIR thermal cameras around the rink before the start of each game. The video has lower resolution than an iPhone recording, but provides the constant full-ice view the company’s algorithms require, as broadcast feeds typically leave 50 percent or more of the ice surface and players out of frame.

Usually, there are no restrictions on filming hockey games for analytics use, and the process is taken care of with the help of each team’s video coach. Last year however ICEBERG was not allowed to film Czech Republic games at the World Championship, as video rights belonged to the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF).
There are still bugs to work out: ICEBERG’s computer vision algorithms struggled when team Kazakhstan wore gold numbers on white jerseys and team Switzerland wore dark jerseys with black numbers.

Artificial neural networks are trained to recognize all moving entities on the ice surface: 12 players grouped by jersey color, on-ice officials, and a small black puck that can reach speeds of 160 kph (100 mph). Computer vision algorithms previously trained on a dataset containing 10,000 variations of numbers from all angles can identify each player by jersey number.

By tracking player and puck coordinates 10 times per second, a sixty-minute game will generate one million data points. The algorithm matches individual player coordinates with those of the puck to record their passes, body checks, giveaways and takeaways, shots, and goals. Typically, about 7–9 percent of all shots result in goals, and variance here predicts higher or lower goal probability.

ICEBERG’s AI tracks a total of 500 different metrics which correspond to player and team behavior, and the company sometimes finds statistical nuances that are counterintuitive to hardcore fans or watchful coaches.

In a match between favorite Canada and underdog Switzerland, Iceberg’s AI found that Switzerland skated 1.7 more kilometers and were 5–10 centimeters closer to the puck in micro-episodes. The Swiss also had longer puck possession and generated 2.48 more expected goals (xG). Switzerland’s superior metrics should deliver a win seven times out of ten. But Canada won the game 3–0. Why?

Martynov explains that “about 40 percent of all game outcomes is luck, but the other 60 percent can be predicted, which is what we are trying to do — predicting what isn’t random. Our clients can play five games and lose five times in a row, but data will show that they could’ve won every time. The coach will call our analyst, and we tell them, ‘calm down, it’s just the variation, you will get back to the mean, if you continue playing like this you will win five games in a row’.”

ICEBERG uses NVIDIA’s GPU and marketing expertise and Microsoft Azure’s cloud storage. The company also participates in NVIDIA’s Inception Program.

Portal subscription fee ranges from US$400 — $800 per game. If a team plays 60 games in a season that’s approximately US$30,000. Clients receive a report the morning after each game and can access detailed game numbers from the portal. ICEBERG also has on-call analysts to answer clients’ questions.

Finding clients can be a long process of convincing the coach, the manager, and the owner. ICEBERG’s deal with Austria’s Red Bull Salzburg required four months of negotiation. “There are coaches who are confused, asking ‘why do I need this?’” says Martynov. “We are not trying to replace the coach or the manager, but give teams an edge. It makes hockey more intellectual.”

There are also cases like Swedish teams Växjö Lakers and Färjestad BK, who signed contracts in five minutes. The competitive edge of data analytics is too good to be ignored.

“Currently, We have a market share of 5–7% of global professional hockey teams. But it’s not moving as fast as I would like,” says Martynov, “We want to go into the soccer market after this. If you get two percent of the soccer market, that’s approximately the same as the entire hockey market. We started in the niche market, but hockey is also a very complicated sport where players skate fast, collide often, change every minute, not to mention the puck is very small. Technically, it’s easy to downgrade from hockey into other sports.”

Journalist: Meghan Han | Editor: Michael Sarazen

“Rage Against the Machine [Learning]” Hockey vs. Data Science

By Graham Sucha / August 5, 2020

A strong understanding of math is one skill commonly needed to be a successful data scientist. Some of the most successful data scientists have a vast array of mathematical skills they can use — along with programming expertise — to run a data science project. 

Often when Cyberans discuss machine learning and data science with business leaders and those in the start-up community, we try to find real-world applications to provide as examples. Over the last few years finding examples has become easier. Data science has become more common with the increase in availability of increased computing power and cost effective cloud infrastructure like cloud resources.

Cybera Data Scientist, Alex Tennant, presents at a data science Lunch and Learn hosted by Startup Calgary

For instance, in January of this year, Alex Tennant — one of our data scientists  —  asked himself the question, “when discussing data science and machine learning, what is a relatable example for Canadians and Albertans?” The answer: hockey!

With machine learning, we frequently hear how automation will replace humans in decision making. So, to put this to the test, Alex programmed an algorithm that would choose the best fantasy hockey picks. For those who aren’t familiar with fantasy hockey, it essentially all boils down to math. You select players, referred to as “picks”, with the purpose of putting together a team of NHL players that will give you the most “fantasy points” in each game during that season. Points are awarded based on real-life player wins, goals, assists, +/-, saves by a goalie, etc. This was an especially interesting challenge for Alex to take on, because he doesn’t know a lot about hockey, but is good at math.

The Draft and an Abrupt End

After much trial and error, Alex trained six “bots” using different selection parameters to test several theories on  how to make efficient picks. He then recruited a couple people at Cybera to test these theories: one who knows quite a bit about hockey and is good at math; and myself, who watches hockey — but is nowhere near an expert —, and is okay at math (I guess that made me the control). 

We did a mock fantasy draft where us humans  and the bots all picked separate players. Each week, all participants would manage our team line ups, based on which player we thought would garner more points. The bots would take into consideration things like injuries, previous years’ points, and present performances. The humans would do the same (admittedly myself, very poorly), with a pinch of gut instinct and humanity playing a role in our choices.

Our test abruptly ended when COVID-19 struck, leading to the remainder of the NHL season being cancelled. Despite this, the test became a relatable tool for introducing people to the world of data science and machine learning. It was used in several introductory workshops that Cybera presented last winter across the province.

COVID Ended the Demo…What’s Next?

What did we learn after the abrupt end? One of the Cybera’s employees (who went by the name “Bron Tiiu” in the fantasy pool) fared very well against the bots. They beat five out of the six machines, and came awfully close to being victorious over the AI. This human participant had a fundamental understanding of the factors that might make a hockey player successful. They took into consideration if a player had momentum (hot streak) , or if the player’s team was facing challenges. They could also take the performance numbers into consideration, and look at how those come into play against other extenuating circumstances.

Bron Tiiu’s Team and Graham’s Team represent the human players challenging the six players created using data science.

Frequently, when discussing machine learning and data science, the topic “subject matter expertise” arises. You can have the best data scientist in the world. However, if the data scientist doesn’t have the background knowledge about the subject they’re working on, they won’t understand the context around the data, which can sometimes lead to the project failing. So as “Bron Tiiu” showed us, having context to the numbers was vitally important. If Alex had some of that expertise, his bots might have performed better. This is a perfect example of why you should leverage your data in unison with a subject matter expert.

So, what’s next? Alex has used the data that was collected to refine the bots. With the NHL’s 24 team post-season having begun this month, we’re now testing two bots against a wider group of Cybera employees. This will be a very interesting test, because the way the NHL is conducting the postseason (running all games in just two locations) has never been done before, which makes using “context” to determine outcomes challenging. There are other factors that may drive outcomes, including fluke wins, players having not played for months, and previously hurt players having had months to recuperate. Either way, we will find out if a machine can fully overcome the knowledge and experience of a human.

If you want to follow along with the results of our internal hockey pool, visit Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool Page and select the “Cybera” group. You can also check out the hockey draft AI though this Github page.

Feel free to visit Cybera’s Data Science for Albertans site to learn more about the program.

No Bull: True Tales of Real Life Trial Consultants

By Ian McWilliams

New England Trial Services - At your side, telling your client's story

ASTC members share their knowledge and experience

“I change people’s minds for a living. Especially the juries”
Dr. Jason Bull CBS-TV-BULL

Hollywood’s entertainment industry has long had a fascination with the legal system. From Perry Mason and Matlock to Law and Order, lawyer dramas have dominated the television airwaves. But now there is a new player on the small screen, a one-hour drama on the CBS Television Network created by former trial consultant turned TV personality, Dr. Phil McGraw. The title character, a charming rogue named Dr. Jason Bull, played by actor Michael Weatherly, is a Psychologist with degrees in 3 disciplines who leads a litigation consulting firm named Trial Analysis Corporation. TAC inhabits a high-tech New York City office and features a staff which includes new generation characters such as; a smart, driven young woman assistant; a young Hispanic former prosecutor who leads mock trials; an oddly named Millennial hacker; a tough, female former FBI investigator and a male Vogue stylist. Together they practice what is often called Trial Science, a multi-discipline study of behavioral sciences, linguistics, mass communications, training, and education techniques and more. The episodes have been introducing the audience to the characters and the work they do, building dramatic tension, sharing backstories and giving examples of topics which form the basis of many real-life studies which are conducted by real-life trial consultants.

But it is impossible to tell a complete story in 43 minutes, where acts and scenes are written with commercial breaks in mind. And sometimes entertainment considerations may take precedence and a certain dramatic license may shade a story arc. So when I see a “trial consultant” who instructs his staff to hack into a juror’s computer and plant a fake news story, I just have to say “what the…” and remember that I am watching a television drama. And if I am offended by this portrayal of a profession I embrace I just listen to the words of the show’s producer Dr. Phil, who, when interviewed about the show tells folks including real-life Trial Consultants, “It’s Hollywood. Get over it.”

THIS IS NOT AN ARTICLE ABOUT A TELEVISION SHOW.

This is more, an introduction to a respected profession which embraces a wide variety of practices and the national organization that promotes that profession. I would like to introduce you to the Very Wide World of Trial Consulting.

“We’ll know what a jury’s going to come back with. We’ll know because that’s what we do. That’s what trial science is.”
Dr. Jason Bull

Because an accurate explanation requires expert knowledge I thought it best to use the words of some of the nation’s top trial consultants, testifying as it were, about what they see as their profession and their roles in the justice system. They come from very diverse backgrounds from research science to the law, from applied work in psychology to marketing, advertising, and public opinion research. From professional communication applications, from drama, training and education to mass communications, behavioral science, linguistics and more. But there is one common thread which binds this group of professionals, the ASTC.

Founded in 1982 as the Association of Trial Behavior Consultants, the American Society of Trial Consultants is the only national body to create professional standards and practice guidelines for Trial Consultants; to bring together an extensive repository of reference materials, and provide training and continuing education, business development and networking opportunities for ASTC members and attorneys. The goals of the Society are presented in its Mission Statement:

The ASTC Mission. “Our legal system is based on the principle that each party putting forward the best case – making the most of facts, law and presentation skill – allows the truth to win out far more often than not. In that kind of a system, the goals of the ASTC lie at the very heart of the law’s ability to deliver justice. We help litigators become better at persuading jurors and other fact-finders, and that makes the system work in a way that is more meaningful, more reliable, and ultimately, more fair.”

ASTC has a membership from across the country (currently 45 states). Membership has grown from 19 in 1983 to a diverse group today that is over 400 strong. Members bring skills forged in a number of academic disciplines (including psychology, communication, theatre, sociology, law, and many others) to the tasks identified by the Society in 1982.

Member consultants provide some or all of the following services: case theory and presentation, community attitude surveys, continuing legal education seminars, deposition preparation, expert testimony, focus groups, graphics and demonstrative evidence, jury selection, language and the law, media relations, mediation and arbitration (ADR), mock jury trials, negotiations, opening statement and closing argument preparation and evaluation, post-trial juror interviews, presentation strategy, pro bono services, trial simulations, trial technology, voir dire strategy, change of venue studies and witness preparation.
The Society recognizes there are many avenues and aspects of trial consulting. As the ASTC has grown over the years, it has addressed a number of issues crucial to all professions, while continually improving the skills, visibility, and standing of the profession of litigation consulting. To that end, members have created the ASTC Code of Professional Standards.

The Code provides enforceable standards and offers guidance in many areas common to trial consultants working in this diverse field. The Code provides for: ETHICAL PRINCIPLES, PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS , and PRACTICE GUIDELINES.

Under ETHICAL PRINCIPLES is: COMPETENCE: Trial consultants strive to maintain high standards of competence in their work. They recognize the boundaries of their particular competencies and the limitations of their expertise. When in the role of trial consultant, the member does not practice law but seeks to enhance the practice of law by facilitating the skills of the legal practitioner. Trial consultants are dedicated to providing the legal community with information on litigation related behavior and communication. They provide only those services and use only those techniques for which they are qualified by education, training, or experience. They maintain knowledge of relevant professional information related to the services they render.”

Under the heading of GENERAL PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS are categories which include: Consultant-Client Relationship, Training and Provision of Services and Conflicts of Interest.

And for PRACTICE GUIDELINES the Society has created specific Standards and Guidelines in major fields of practice including Venue Survey, Witness Preparation, Small Group Research, Jury Selection, Post-Trial Juror Interviews and Online Research.

BUT REALLY, WHAT IS TRIAL CONSULTING?

One of the biggest disciplines in Trial Consulting is Jury Selection and Persuasion. Daniel Dugan, Ph.D. an ASTC member and Trial Consultant with Trial Science, Inc. in Reno NV compares his approach with bicycling in time trial competitions, where each rider starts at their own assigned time and race against the clock. During the race, you have no idea what place you are in and results are not posted until everyone is finished. Kind of like a jury trial to verdict. As Dr. Dugan describes it:”Our clients have one chance to put on their case in front of a jury. All the practice arguments, powerpoint slides, animations, etc., that we test in front of focus groups and mock jurors are performed to hone in on making our telling of our story the best that it can be. We are sophisticated in our practice and rehearsal techniques and we learn [usually by trial and error and feedback from our test audiences] what works and what does not. The feedback shapes our final effort. Our clients are allowed to have a fair and impartial jury hear their case. We cannot advise who to put on the jury, but we can suggest who to take off. Our science, however, we practice it as professionals, is to be very good at finding even the tiniest bit of bias that a prospective juror might have against our client and to suggest to our attorney who that person is and why they might hurt us. Most of the time we are faced with finding relative levels of bias and challenging the most biased while having to settle for some remaining bias among other jurors. The point is, our job is to eliminate bias as much as possible and just because we are very good at what we do does not mean we have manipulated anything at all. Then we have to sit back and wait for the outcome. We have no control over what the other side might do, what jurors decide is important or not to them, or how the dynamics of the deliberations are going to play out. We do our pre-trial work to be fully prepared for our one shot at a decision and the rest is out of our control or beyond manipulation.”

CAN A JURY REALLY BE MANIPULATED?

Often, people speak of “manipulating” juries, that trial consultants, using scientific techniques and tools can somehow mysteriously cause jurors to believe the unbelievable. David Illig, Ph.D., of Litigation Psychology in Portland Oregon writes: “A valuable thing to teach both witnesses and attorneys is that we should analyze communications in terms of BOTH ‘intent’ and ‘impact.’ You can have all the certainty you want about what your intention is, as a speaker. However, the impact is located in the audience, not the sender. ‘Manipulation’ is most often associated in people’s brains (audiences) with ‘improper’ influence, ‘unfair’ influence, and ‘incorrect’ impact. It is more often associated with being dissociated from the ‘truth,’ rather than associated with getting to the truth. Furthermore, saying that both attorneys and litigation consultants are attempting to manipulate the juries is damaging to the image of the court system. Symbols make a huge difference. Humans are symbolic creatures.”

And another voice on the topic of manipulation is Charlotte “Charli” Morris, M.A. of Raleigh, NC, co-author (with the late Dr. Richard Crawford, ASTC Past President) of The Persuasive Edge (Second Edition) and founder of Legal Communications Consulting. Charli writes:”I find it disrespectful toward jurors to talk about manipulating them. I don’t take them for granted. I don’t believe we control their minds or their behaviors or their decisions. I want to know what they believe before they sit on my client’s case so I can think about ways to connect our message to their experience and attitudes. I want to eliminate folks who reveal the bias that is most harmful to our case so they can’t unfairly manipulate the outcome of a trial. But that is an open and honest exchange that our attorney-clients can have during voir dire. And that is a direct connection we can make between our evidence and arguments and a juror’s life experience and attitudes. That is a healthy and non-manipulative connection we can make between our case and who they are.”

ASTC: GIVING BACK TO THE LEGAL PROFESSION

Another goal of the ASTC is the collection and distribution of knowledge and to provide a forum for the exchange of ideas, opinions, techniques, experiences and research results in the area of trial consulting. And the results are outstanding. The ASTC has recognized that both the members and the broader academic and legal community have a strong interest in what trial consultants know, the research we rely on, and the experience we have gathered from study, research, and experience. The ASTC has brought its publications to the membership and to an ever-widening audience. These communication outlets include:

ASTC Web – our general public and members-only website found at http://www.astcweb.org where you will find, among other features, a Consultant Locator and links to publications including:

Deliberations ASTCBlog: The purpose of Deliberations is to provide consultants and litigators from diverse backgrounds with the opportunity to disseminate and discuss important information about the field of litigation consulting to the broader legal community. Deliberations provides a forum to discuss not only “tips of the trade,” but also important (and sometimes controversial) information regarding the application of the social sciences to the practice of litigation. It has been an American Bar Association “Top 10” blog and cited as an excellent source for legal information. Deliberations averages almost 8000 hits per month.

The Jury Expert – a quarterly trade skills magazine featuring social science research applied to the legal field. It is written primarily for attorneys and others in the litigation community. ASTC members and guest authors translate relevant research into practical information and techniques for litigators. TJE had been published by ASTC since 2005 and provides access to hundreds of articles on such topics a: Bias, Case Preparation and Presentation, Voir Dire and Jury Selection. It appears in an online format here.

A permanent ASTC Pro-Bono Committee and committed ASTC members provide access to Trial Consultants around the nation. But the members and Society aim much higher. In the words of ASTC Past-President Kenneth Broda-Bahm, Ph.D. of Persuasion Strategies of Denver CO, whose own blog, The Persuasive Litigator, was honored by the ABA Journal with the highest recognition they have for bloggers—the Blawg 100 Hall of Fame.

“We are trial consultants, and our profession comes down unambiguously and unapologetically on the side of the Constitution, civil rights, and an open and tolerant society. If we can help it, any promised rollback on these rights will not come easily. Civil rights are already strained on a number of fronts in this country and the situation is likely to get worse in coming years. We are entering what’s likely to be a prolonged time where ideas like routine stop and frisk, ‘extreme’ vetting, ‘enhanced’ interrogation, registration based on religion, voting suppression, deportation forces… it goes on…. are all being tossed around like they’re normal political ideas. Some of these battles will be fought in the courts. Accordingly, now more than ever, there should be a greater role for experts in legal psychology and persuasion to add knowledge, research, and effectiveness in an organized and purposeful defense of American civil rights, an experienced group that is expressly committed to offering targeted low- or no- fee work on behalf of identified challenges to civil rights, working with groups like the ACLU and the Southern Poverty Law Center, with the goal to regionally identify cases and then offer the right people to help.”

HOW CAN I FIND OUT MORE ABOUT TRIAL CONSULTING?

First off, don’t believe the BULL. Take it as it is, a 45 minute hour of entertainment. I find it amusing that Dr. Bull not only leads his team to a victory for their client but he has often gone far beyond the Trial Consultant’s duty to help solve the crime, then watches as the true villain is brought to justice in the final act. His actions often “break the law” but in the world of television entertainment, should be seen as a very fanciful take on a peaceful profession that respects the law. For the real deal just visit the ASTC Home Page.

Filed Under: The Industry

About Ian McWilliams

Ian A. McWilliams is a videographer, trial presentation technician and member of the American Society of Trial Consultant. He helps Trial Attorneys present their evidence in venues throughout the United States. And in 2005 he was dubbed Captain Video by the Hon. Carol S. Ball during a civil trial in Suffolk Superior Court.

About groovy777

Toronto gal. Curious about people, life, the universes.
This entry was posted in animals, architecture, artwork, cars, energy, env activism, experimental, fish and marine life, flowers, food, global village, holography, information age, internet, intro, music and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s